SWOT analysis to assess the threat of illegal arms trafficking on the Ukrainian border with the European Union countries in the context of the war
El análisis FODA para evaluar la amenaza del tráfico ilegal de armas en la frontera de Ucrania con los países de la Unión Europea en el contexto de la guerra
Palabras clave:
análisis FODA, armas y municiones, seguridad fronteriza en Europa, combate a amenazas, tráfico ilegal de armas
Resumen
El problema de combatir las amenazas del tráfico ilegal de armas, municiones y explosivos en los puntos fronterizos de Ucrania con los países de la Unión Europea UE se ha vuelto urgente bajo la ley marcial. El objetivo del estudio fue desarrollar una estrategia óptima para el Servicio Estatal de Guardia de Fronteras de Ucrania (en lo sucesivo, «SBGSU») para combatirlas amenazas del tráfico ilegal de armas en los puntos fronterizos con países de la UE bajo la ley marcial. Se utilizó un enfoque metodológico integral que combinó los siguientes métodos científicos: método comparativo, método de análisis de sistemas, método estructural-funcional, encuesta y método de evaluación de expertos grupales, método de clasificación y determinación de características numéricas. Se desarrolló un modelo para evaluar la amenaza del tráfico ilegal de armas en la frontera de Ucrania con los países de la UE bajo la ley marcial basado en el análisis FODA. En consecuencia, se identificaron los factores de fortalezas y debilidades, oportunidades y amenazas, que existen en la agencia de guardia fronteriza de Ucrania. Se concluye que los resultados de este estudio no pueden aplicarse a las zonas fronterizas de Ucrania con países como la Federación Rusa, Bielorrusia y Moldavia.
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BASTIEN OLVERA, Gustavo. 2014. “The security council and the illegal transfer of small arms and light weapons to non-state actors” In: Mexican Law Review. Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 225-250. Available online. In: https://www. mendeley.com/catalogue/69017b8f-096d-350b-8b12-95ec90409e4f/. Date of consultation: 19/06/22.
BEZNOGYKH, Viktor. 2021. “About the risks of supplying illegal weapons from Ukraine to Europe” In: Bulletin of the Luhansk State University of Internal Affairs named after E.O. Didorenko. Vol. 1, No. 93, pp. 264-275. Available online. In: https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/7fe1369d- 59ed-35f5-a350-06a99e9df75a/ Date of consultation: 19/06/22.
BRAGA, Anthony; COOK, Philip; KENNEDY, David; MOORE, Mark. 2002. “The Illegal Supply of Firearms” In: Crime and Justice. Vol. 29, pp. 319-352. Available online. In: https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/ c7b6b956-2d39-33aa-bd38-5c35526842a5/. Date of consultation: 19/06/22.
BRATKO, Artem; OLESHKO, Dmytro; DATSKOV, Anton; VYCHAVKA, Valerii; OLYTSKYI, Oleksandr; BALYTSKYI, Ihor. 2021. “Use of the SWOT Analysis in the Field of National Security Planning” In: Emerging Science Journal. Vol. 5, No. 3, рр. 330-337.
BUHAICHUK, Kostiantyn. 2021. “Some Issues of Normative and Legal Regulation of Weapons in Ukraine” In: Bulletin of Kharkiv National University of Internal Affairs. Vol. 93, No. 2, pp. 146-159. Available online. In: https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/98101ea0-8278- 394a-be40-38db2d4ad227/. Date of consultation: 19/06/22.
BUSCEMI, Francesco; DUQUET, Nils; GOLOVKO, Ekaterina; WOODS, Eric. 2018. “Illicit firearms proliferation in the EU periphery: The case of Ukraine” In: Triggering terror: Illicit gun markets and firearms acquisition of terrorist networks in Europe. Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute. Available online. In: https://flemishpeaceinstitute.eu/safte/files/project_safte_eu_neighbourhood_ukraine.pdf. Date of consultation: 19/06/22.
CSABA, Zagon. 2012. “Border traffic risk assessment” In: AARMS. Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 273-285. Available online. In: https://www.researchgate. net/publication/263751302_Border_traffic_risk_assessmass. Date of consultation: 11/05/22.
DZIUNDZIUK, Viacheslav; KRUTII, Olena; SOBOL, Roman; KOTUKOVA, Tetiana; KOTukov, Oleksandr. 2022. “Improved planning of information policy in the cyber security sphere under conditions of hybrid threats” In: Cuestiones Políticas. Vol. 40, No. 74, pp. 741-763. Available online. In: https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.4074.41. Date of consultation: 11/08/22.
FARION, Oleh. 2021. “Method of Strategic Criminal Analysis of Treats to Frontier Safety of Ukraine” In: Collection of scientific works of the National Academy of the State Border Service of Ukraine. Series: military and technical sciences. Vol. 83, No. 2, pp. 223-241. Available online. In: https://doi.org/10.32453/3.v83i2.569. Date of consultation: 11/02/22.
FEINSTEIN, Andrew; HOLDEN, Paul. 2014. “Arms Trafficking.” In: The Oxford Handbook of Organized Crime. Available online. In: https:// academic.oup.com/edited-volume/38662/chapter-abstract/335791271?redirectedFrom=fulltext. Date of consultation: 11/02/22.
FRONTEX. 2022. Strategic Risk Analysis 2022. Available online. In: https:// frontex.europa.eu/documents-and-publications/strategic-risk-analysis- 2022-Kj2kic. Date of consultation: 11/02/22.
HORII, Satoko. 2016. “The Effect of Frontex’s Risk Analysis on the European Border Controls” In: European Politics and Society. Vol. 17, pp. 242-258. https://doi.org/10.1080/23745118.2016.1121002. Date of consultation: 11/02/22.
MACKENZIE, Simon. 2020. “Arms Trafficking” In: Transnational Criminology: Trafficking and Global Criminal Markets, pp. 89-104. Bristol University Press. Available online. In: https://www.cambridge. org/core/books/abs/transnational-criminology/arms-trafficking/ BFECD81CADD21679836ED7C4270C7685. Date of consultation: 11/02/22.
MAKHNIUK, Anatoliy; KYRYCHENKO, Oleksandr. 2012. “Strategic analysis of risks in the field of integrated border management: development of passports of threats to border security” In: Economy and the state. Vol. 7, pp. 107-109. Available online. In: http://www.economy.in.ua/ pdf/7_2012/33.pdf. Date of consultation: 11/02/22.
MARTYNIUK, Anton. 2017. “Measuring Illicit Arms Flows: Ukraine.” In: Small Arms Survey Briefing Paper. Geneva. Available online. In: https://www. smallarmssurvey.org/sites/default/files/resources/SAS-BP3-Ukraine. pdf. Date of consultation: 19/02/22.
MOSOV, Sergey; SALIY, Sergey; CHUKANOV, Andriy. 2020. “Identifying and As-sessing the Challenges, Dangers and Treats to the Border Security of Kazakhstan: Methodological Foundations” In: Collection of scientific works of the National Academy of the State Border Service of Ukraine. Series: military and technical sciences. Vol. 83, No. 2, pp. 204-222.
PAUL, Regine. 2018. “Risk Analysis as a Governance Tool in European Border Control” In: The Routledge Handbook of the Politics of Migration in Europe. Available online. In: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322343040_Risk_Analysis_as_a_Governance_Tool_in_European_Border_Control_pre-print. Date of consultation: 19/02/22.
PETERKA-BENTON, Daniela. 2012. “Arms Trafficking in Transnistria: A European Security Threat?” In: Journal of Applied Security Research. Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 71-92. https://doi.org/10.1080/19361610.2012.631407. Date of consultation: 19/02/22.
PREZELJ, Iztok; GABER, Marija. 2005. “Smuggling as a Threat to National and International Security: Slovenia and the Balkan Route” In: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes. Athena Papers, Vol. 5, pp. 1-100. Available online. In: http://connections-qj.org/article/smuggling-threat-national-and- international-security-slovenia-and-balkan-route. Date of consultation: 19/02/22.
REZNIKOVA, Olha. 2022. “Strategic analysis of the security environment of Ukraine” In: National Institute of Strategic Studies. Available online. In: https://niss.gov.ua/news/statti/stratehichnyy-analiz-bezpekovoho- seredovyshcha-ukrayiny. Date of consultation: 19/02/22.
REZNIKOVA, Olha; VOITOVSKYI, Kostiantyn; LEPIKHOV, Andriy. 2020. National risk and threat assessment systems: world best practices, new opportunities for Ukraine: analyst. report. Available online. In:
https://niss.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2020-07/dopovid.pdf. Date of consultation: 19/02/22.
RUDYK, Mykola; MASLIENIKOVA, Kateryna; NOSEVYCH, Nadiya; VINTSUK, Viktoriia; FATKHUTDINOV, Vasyl. 2022. “The role of the number of detected criminal offenses in the police performance indicators system” In: Cuestiones Políticas. Vol. 40, No. 73, pp. 90-107. https://doi. org/10.46398/cuestpol.4073.04. Date of consultation: 19/07/22.
SAVONA, Ernesto U; MANCUSO, Marina (Eds.). 2017. Fighting lllicit Firearms Trafficking Routes and Actors at European Level. Final Report of Project FIRE. Available online. In: https://www.transcrime.it/wp-content/ uploads/2017/03/FIREFinalReport.pdf. Date of consultation: 19/03/22.
SCHROEDER, Matt; SHUMSKA, Olena. 2021. “Making the Rounds: Illicit Ammunition in Ukraine” In: Small Arms Survey Report. Available online. In: https://www.smallarmssurvey.org/sites/default/files/resources/ SAS-Report-Illicit-Ammunition-Ukraine.pdf. Date of consultation: 19/03/22.
SENIORA, Jihan; POITEVIN Cedric. 2010. “Managing Land Borders and the Trafficking of Small Arms and Light Weapons” In: Les Rapports du GRIP. Vol. 3. Available online. In: https://issat.dcaf.ch/ download/8325/76753/2010-3_EN.pdf. Date of consultation: 21/03/22.
SHEVCHUK, Viktor; KOTIUK, Mykhailo. 2020. “Methods of smuggling of firearms and ammunition in the structure of criminalistic characteristics” In: Do desenvolvimento mundial como resultado de realizações em ciência e investigação científica. Vol. 4, pp. 8-13. Available online. In: https://ojs.ukrlogos.in.ua/index.php/logos/article/view/5002/4958. Date of consultation: 21/03/22.
THORESON, Gregory G. 2011. A General Nuclear Smuggling Threat Scenario Analysis Platform. Available online. In: https://repositories.lib.utexas. edu/bitstream/handle/2152/ETD-UT-2011-08-3725/THORESON- DISSERTATION.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. Date of consultation: 21/03/22.
UNITED NATIONS (UNODC). 2020. Global Study on Firearms Trafficking 2020. Available online. In: https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/firearms- protocol/firearms-study.html. Date of consultation: 21/03/22.
Publicado
2022-12-29
Cómo citar
Samoilenko, O., Bereziuk, V., Zabolotna, O., Chornyi, A., & Adamchuk, O. (2022). SWOT analysis to assess the threat of illegal arms trafficking on the Ukrainian border with the European Union countries in the context of the war: El análisis FODA para evaluar la amenaza del tráfico ilegal de armas en la frontera de Ucrania con los países de la Unión Europea en el contexto de la guerra. Cuestiones Políticas, 40(75), 694-716. https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.4075.42
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