Corrupción como un factor de insostenibilidad fiscal
Palabras clave:
corrupción, deuda pública, modelo de panel, sostenibilidad, instituciones
Resumen
El impacto de la corrupción sobre las finanzas públicas es un tema crítico que afecta la estabilidad económica de los países. La corrupción disminuye los ingresos fiscales, redirige recursos hacia gastos improductivos y, en consecuencia, aumenta los niveles de deuda pública. El objetivo principal del estudio es evaluar de manera cuantitativa el impacto de la corrupción sobre los niveles de deuda pública en un panel de 135 países entre 2002 y 2020 e identificar los canales de transmisión. El modelo empírico se basa en un modelo de panel dinámico que utiliza el método de los momentos generalizados para abordar la endogeneidad, con variables explicativas relacionadas con la corrupción, gasto y desarrollo económico. Los resultados indican que la corrupción reduce los ingresos tributarios y redirige recursos hacia gastos improductivos, lo que incrementa la deuda pública. Además, se observa que el impacto es particularmente fuerte en países con abundantes recursos naturales. Se concluye que un aumento en la corrupción contribuye significativamente a la inestabilidad financiera y al endeudamiento público.
Citas
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Choi, J. P., & Thum, M. (2005). Corruption and the shadow economy. International Economic Review, 46(3), 817–836. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2005.00347.x
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Damijan, S. (2023). Corruption: A review of issues. Economic and Business Review, 25(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.15458/2335-4216.1314
Debrun, X., Ostry, J. D., Willems, T., & Wyplosz, C. (2019). Debt Sustainability. Sovereign debt: A guide for economists and practitioners, 151.
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Izquierdo, A., Pessino, C., & Vuletin, G. (Eds.). (2018). Mejor gasto para mejores vidas: cómo América Latina y el Caribe puede hacer más con menos. Inter-American Development Bank.
Kim, E., Ha, Y., & Kim, S. (2017). Public debt, corruption and sustainable economic growth. Sustainability, 9(3), 433. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9030433
Kumar, M., & Woo, J. (2010). Public debt and growth (IMF Working Paper No. 10/174). International Monetary Fund.
Lane, P. R. (2012). The European sovereign debt crisis. The Journal of Economic Perspectives: A Journal of the American Economic Association, 26(3), 49–68. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.3.49
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Mauro, P. (1998). Corruption and the composition of government expenditure. Journal of Public Economics, 69(2), 263–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0047-2727(98)00025-5
Mo, P. H. (2001). Corruption and economic growth. Journal of Comparative Economics, 29(1), 66–79. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcec.2000.1703
Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296528
Olken, B. A., & Pande, R. (2012). Corruption in developing countries. Annual Review of Economics, 4(1), 479–509. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080511-110917
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Rosid, A., Evans, C., & Tran-Nam, B. (2016). Do perceptions of corruption influence personal income taxpayer reporting behaviour?: Evidence from Indonesia. eJournal of Tax Research, 14(2), 1-36. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3329060
Sharma, C., & Mishra, R. K. (2022). On the good and bad of natural resource, corruption, and economic growth nexus. Environmental & Resource Economics, 82(4), 889–922. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-022-00694-x
Shaxson, N. (2007). Oil, Corruption and the Resource Curse. International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), 83(6), 1123–1140. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4541914
Tanzi, V., & Davoodi, H. (2001). Corruption, growth, and public finances. The political economy of corruption, 2, 89-110. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Corruption-Growth-and-Public-Finances-3854
Tee, C.-M., & Teoh, T.-T. M. (2024). The cost of debt and political institutions: the influence of corruption. Journal of Financial Crime, 31(1), 44–62. https://doi.org/10.1108/jfc-08-2022-0192
Torgler, B. (2004). Tax morale, trust, and corruption: Empirical evidence from transition countries (CREMA Working Paper No. 2004-05). Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA). https://hdl.handle.net/10419/214291
Andvig, J. C., Fjeldstad, O.-H., Amundsen, I., Sissener, T., & Søreide, T. (2001). Corruption. A review of contemporary research. (Research report). Åpne R 2001 7.pdf. http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2435853
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-d
Barra, C., & Ruggiero, N. (2023). Institutional quality and public spending in Europe: A quantile regression approach. Economics and Politics, 35(3), 949–1019. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12248
Benfratello, L., Del Monte, A., & Pennacchio, L. (2018). Corruption and public debt: a cross-country analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 25(5), 340–344. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2017.1321831
Choi, J. P., & Thum, M. (2005). Corruption and the shadow economy. International Economic Review, 46(3), 817–836. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2005.00347.x
Cooray, A., Dzhumashev, R., & Schneider, F. (2017). How does corruption affect public debt? An empirical analysis. World Development, 90, 115–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.020
Damijan, S. (2023). Corruption: A review of issues. Economic and Business Review, 25(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.15458/2335-4216.1314
Debrun, X., Ostry, J. D., Willems, T., & Wyplosz, C. (2019). Debt Sustainability. Sovereign debt: A guide for economists and practitioners, 151.
Del Monte, A., & Pennacchio, L. (2020). Corruption, government expenditure and public debt in OECD countries. Comparative Economic Studies, 62(4), 739–771. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-020-00118-z
Delavallade, C. (2006). Corruption and distribution of public spending in developing countries. Journal of Economics and Finance, 30(2), 222–239. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02761488
Dreher, A., & Schneider, F. (2010). Corruption and the shadow economy: an empirical analysis. Public Choice, 144(1/2), 215–238. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40661057
Eberhardt, M., & Presbitero, A. F. (2015). Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity. Journal of International Economics, 97(1), 45–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.04.005
Farooq, F., Zaib, A., Faheem, M., & Gardezi, M. A. (2023). Public debt and environment degradation in OIC countries: the moderating role of institutional quality. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, 30(19), 55354–55371. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26061-x
Farzanegan, M. R. (2018). The impact of oil rents on military spending in the GCC region: Does corruption matter? Journal of Arabian Studies, 8(sup1), 87–109. https://doi.org/10.1080/21534764.2018.1546938
Forslund, K., Lima, L., & Panizza, U. (2011). The determinants of the composition of public debt in developing and emerging market countries. Review of Development Finance, 1(3–4), 207–222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rdf.2011.09.004
Fondo Monetario Internacional (2002). Governance, Corruption, and Economic Performance. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
Friedman, E., Johnson, S., Kaufmann, D., & Zoido-Lobaton, P. (2000). Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries. Journal of Public Economics, 76(3), 459–493. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0047-2727(99)00093-6
Ghura, M. D. (1998). Tax revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Effects of economic policies and corruption. International Monetary Fund.
González-Fernández, M., & González-Velasco, C. (2014). Shadow economy, corruption and public debt in Spain. Journal of Policy Modeling, 36(6), 1101–1117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.10.001
Imam, P. A., & Jacobs, D. F. (2007). Effect of corruption on tax revenues in the Middle East (IMF Working Paper No. 2007/270). International Monetary Fund.
International Monetary Fund (2010). World Ecoomic Outlook - Rebalancing Growth. International Monetary Fund.
Izquierdo, A., Pessino, C., & Vuletin, G. (Eds.). (2018). Mejor gasto para mejores vidas: cómo América Latina y el Caribe puede hacer más con menos. Inter-American Development Bank.
Kim, E., Ha, Y., & Kim, S. (2017). Public debt, corruption and sustainable economic growth. Sustainability, 9(3), 433. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9030433
Kumar, M., & Woo, J. (2010). Public debt and growth (IMF Working Paper No. 10/174). International Monetary Fund.
Lane, P. R. (2012). The European sovereign debt crisis. The Journal of Economic Perspectives: A Journal of the American Economic Association, 26(3), 49–68. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.3.49
Law, S. H., Ng, C. H., Kutan, A. M., & Law, Z. K. (2021). Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis. Economic Modelling, 98, 26–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.02.004
Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 681–712. https://doi.org/10.2307/2946696
Mauro, P. (1998). Corruption and the composition of government expenditure. Journal of Public Economics, 69(2), 263–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0047-2727(98)00025-5
Mo, P. H. (2001). Corruption and economic growth. Journal of Comparative Economics, 29(1), 66–79. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcec.2000.1703
Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296528
Olken, B. A., & Pande, R. (2012). Corruption in developing countries. Annual Review of Economics, 4(1), 479–509. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080511-110917
Owusu-Nantwi, V., & Owusu-Nantwi, G. (2023). Public debt, corruption and shadow economy in Africa: an empirical analysis. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 39(1), 184–202. https://doi.org/10.1108/jeas-08-2020-0150
Rosid, A., Evans, C., & Tran-Nam, B. (2016). Do perceptions of corruption influence personal income taxpayer reporting behaviour?: Evidence from Indonesia. eJournal of Tax Research, 14(2), 1-36. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3329060
Sharma, C., & Mishra, R. K. (2022). On the good and bad of natural resource, corruption, and economic growth nexus. Environmental & Resource Economics, 82(4), 889–922. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-022-00694-x
Shaxson, N. (2007). Oil, Corruption and the Resource Curse. International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), 83(6), 1123–1140. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4541914
Tanzi, V., & Davoodi, H. (2001). Corruption, growth, and public finances. The political economy of corruption, 2, 89-110. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Corruption-Growth-and-Public-Finances-3854
Tee, C.-M., & Teoh, T.-T. M. (2024). The cost of debt and political institutions: the influence of corruption. Journal of Financial Crime, 31(1), 44–62. https://doi.org/10.1108/jfc-08-2022-0192
Torgler, B. (2004). Tax morale, trust, and corruption: Empirical evidence from transition countries (CREMA Working Paper No. 2004-05). Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA). https://hdl.handle.net/10419/214291
Publicado
2024-12-15
Cómo citar
Desfrancois, P. G. F., & Nieto Aguilar, W. G. (2024). Corrupción como un factor de insostenibilidad fiscal. Revista Venezolana De Gerencia, 29(12), 921-938. https://doi.org/10.52080/rvgluz.29.e12.4
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